A month ago SpaceX went public, and it did it in the most SpaceX way possible: bigger than anything before it, with a few dramatic course corrections along the way.
The launch
SpaceX priced at $135 a share, raising $75 billion, the largest IPO in history, ahead of Saudi Aramco's record from 2019 [2]. It opened at $150 on June 12, hit $176.52 intraday, and closed at $160.95, up 19% [2]. The following week it touched an intraday high of $225, briefly worth more than Amazon and Microsoft [1].
The coast phase
By the end of its first month, shares were around $145, about 35% below that peak [1]. The BBC notes that retail investors who bought in the first five days are looking at potential losses [1]. Nothing like a rocket company to teach the public about gravity.
Why it's so hard to price
SpaceX is at least three businesses wearing one jacket:
- Launch. The rockets everyone knows.
- Starlink. Satellite internet, which is the steady money.
- AI. SpaceX acquired Musk's AI start-up xAI earlier this year, now renamed SpaceXAI, and leases data center capacity to other companies [1].
One analyst told the BBC that this was the first time people felt they could invest in something "being marketed as an AI play" [1]. That's the excitement, and also the risk. AI enthusiasm drove a lot of the early buying, but the BBC points out the main business is still rockets and Starlink [1]. When Starlink cut prices in the Memphis area amid local concerns over a data center project, shares fell 8% that day [1]. Small news, big swing.
What it means for regular people
If you're a Starlink customer: probably nothing yet. Public companies do face more pressure to show steady growth, which can mean price experiments and more aggressive promotions. Watch your plan details, not the ticker.
If you're thinking about the stock: a company this volatile, this early, deserves position sizing you can sleep with. Being excited about rockets is not an investment thesis. (I say this as someone who is very excited about rockets.)
What everyone is missing
Public companies have to report. For the first time, we'll get regular, audited numbers on Starlink and launch economics. That's going to be the most interesting reading for anyone who follows satellite broadband.
If you're tempted to buy in
Do it for the long-term story, not for a month of price moves. New listings are volatile by nature, and a company that launches rockets for a living will have explosive weeks in more ways than one. Size the position so a bad launch day doesn't ruin yours.
Bottom line
Historic launch, normal turbulence. SpaceX the company is the same one it was a month ago. SpaceX the stock is going to be a ride. Buckle in accordingly, or watch from the viewing area.